The Besen Group Releases Five-Year Business Plan Analysis for Starlink Mobile U.S. Market

Independent analysis evaluates a potential hybrid terrestrial and Direct-to-Cell strategy and models $25.35 billion U.S. revenue opportunity by 2031

WASHINGTON DC , DC, UNITED STATES, October 1, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The Besen Group, an international mobile data industry management consulting practice, today announced the release of its Starlink Mobile U.S. Business Plan Analysis, a five-year strategic and financial framework evaluating the potential development of a Starlink Mobile business in the United States from 2027 through 2031.

Under The Besen Group’s modeled scenario, Starlink Mobile U.S. revenue increases from approximately $1.14 billion in 2027 to approximately $25.35 billion by 2031, while modeled EBITDA increases from approximately $769 million to approximately $18.85 billion over the same period. Enterprise services represent approximately 70% of total modeled revenue by 2031, underscoring the potential importance of enterprise connectivity to the long-term economics of a Starlink Mobile business.

This analysis is based on The Besen Group’s independent research, market analysis and financial modeling, incorporating publicly available information, including SpaceX’s second-quarter 2026 (2Q26) results. It is intended as an independent scenario analysis and should not be interpreted as a representation of SpaceX’s actual business plans, financial forecasts, guidance or commitments.

The analysis examines how a potential Starlink Mobile offering could combine terrestrial mobile connectivity, roaming and wholesale partnerships, and Starlink Direct-to-Cell (D2C) satellite connectivity to create a hybrid mobile network serving consumers, enterprises and wholesale partners.

“This business model is fundamentally different from treating Direct-to-Cell as a replacement for terrestrial mobile network,” said Alex Besen, Founder and CEO of The Besen Group LLC. “The opportunity is to combine terrestrial connectivity and satellite connectivity into a single customer experience, using each network where it provides the greatest coverage, capacity and economic value.”

Hybrid Terrestrial and Direct-to-Cell Network Strategy

The Besen Group analysis evaluates four primary components of the potential hybrid network model:

- Terrestrial Mobile Networks - The primary capacity layer for higher-density locations and areas where conventional mobile infrastructure is available.

- Direct-to-Cell Satellite Connectivity - A complementary coverage layer for remote areas, transportation corridors, maritime environments and other locations where terrestrial coverage may be unavailable or economically difficult to provide.

- Roaming and Wholesale Connectivity – Starlink Mobile could provide satellite network capacity to mobile network operator partners, extending their customers’ connectivity into areas where terrestrial networks are unavailable or limited through wholesale and roaming partnerships.

- Femtocells and Targeted Capacity - Localized network infrastructure that could provide additional terrestrial capacity in selected consumer, enterprise, industrial and distributed locations.

Enterprise Market Opportunity

Rather than treating the enterprise opportunity as a single homogeneous market, The Besen Group analysis evaluates several vertical segments that could potentially benefit from hybrid terrestrial and satellite connectivity, including:
 
- Aviation
- Maritime
- Healthcare
- Energy & Utilities
- Construction, Mining, Industrial
- Government, Defense, Public Safety

“Under our modeled business case scenario, enterprise connectivity becomes the largest revenue contributor by 2031” said Alex Besen. “The economics need to be evaluated by vertical market, endpoint type, data usage, connectivity requirements and willingness to pay.”

Financial and Operating Framework

The analysis incorporates:

- U.S. market sizing, consumer subscriber and enterprise endpoint forecasts
- ARPU, mobile data traffic and terrestrial-versus-satellite traffic allocation assumptions
- Roaming, wholesale, satellite/Direct-to-Cell and ground/core/OSS-BSS network cost structure
- Femtocell deployment, device, SIM/eSIM and logistics costs
- Capital Expenditures (CapEx), Operating Expenditures (OpEx) and depreciation
- EBITDA, free cash flow and valuation scenarios

The Besen Group developed the business plan as an independent analytical framework to help investors, mobile network operators, satellite operators, MVNOs and infrastructure providers evaluate the potential implications of the emerging terrestrial-satellite convergence.

The analysis also evaluates the capital requirements associated with a potential Starlink Mobile business, including a modeled $23.1 billion spectrum investment as well as ongoing investment in satellite and D2C infrastructure, ground/core/OSS infrastructure and targeted femtocell deployment.

Independent Scenario Analysis

The Besen Group emphasizes that the business plan is an independent scenario analysis and is not intended to predict SpaceX’s actual strategic or commercial decisions.

The modeled financial results, subscriber and endpoint forecasts, ARPU assumptions, traffic assumptions, spectrum investment, CapEx, OpEx and valuation outputs are based on The Besen Group’s assumptions and analytical framework.

Available for Corporate License

The Besen Group offers Starlink Mobile Business Plan Analysis Report in PowerPoint PDF format and Starlink Mobile Business Plan Analysis Tool in Excel format on a corporate license basis.

An outline of the Starlink Mobile Business Plan Analysis Report can be downloaded at:
https://www.thebesengroup.com/downloads/Starlink.Mobile.Business.Plan.Outline.pdf

The limited version of the Starlink Mobile Business Case Tool can be downloaded at: http://www.thebesengroup.com/downloads/Starlink.Mobile.Business.Case.Tool.Limited.xlsx

For corporate license pricing and additional information, please send an email with contact details including name, title, company name, phone number to research@thebesengroup.com.

Disclaimer

This press release and the underlying business plan represent an independent analytical and scenario-planning exercise conducted by The Besen Group LLC. Financial projections, subscriber and endpoint forecasts, enterprise market assumptions, ARPU, traffic forecasts, CapEx, OpEx, spectrum investment, EBITDA, free cash flow and valuation outputs are illustrative assumptions and model results developed by The Besen Group LLC and are not forecasts, guidance or financial projections provided by SpaceX.

This analysis does not represent or confirm SpaceX’s actual or planned commercial strategy, business relationships, roaming and wholesale agreements, spectrum investments, network deployment plans, financial expectations or other future activities. The Besen Group LLC is not affiliated with, sponsored by, endorsed by, or authorized by SpaceX.

About The Besen Group (www.thebesengroup.com)
The Besen Group is an international management consulting practice to the mobile industry headquartered in the Washington DC area, with representatives in Paris and Tokyo. Its mission is to provide mobile players with tools, knowledge, and services enabling them to perform optimally in their mobile environment. The Besen Group’s competitive edge is based on practical experience with mobile operators, mobile vendors, and a mobile data laboratory.

Alex Besen
The Besen Group LLC
+1 703-981-8168
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